No, Obama will never dump Biden

Dumping Biden would mean that Obama, He Who Was To Make The Oceans Recede, The Won We've Been Waiting For, The Lightbringer, The Sun King... er... President, was wrong about something.

It's absolutely inconceivable (and yes, I do know what that word means) that Obama would ever admit to being wrong about anything.

I could not see Biden staying on the ticket, but was fooled because it is now so late in the game. However, Biden is losing it. Not very smart to begin with, not very controlled to begin with, and now at 70 with zero political future, he's getting worse. With Obama in a fight for his life and needing an asset instead of a liability,  he will throw ol' Joe under the Metroliner.

But I don't think Obama can appoint Biden Sec of State either. That job takes a lot more competence than Biden has, and a VP making a gaffe is just embarrassing to the Prez, a Secretary of State making a gaffe can have very negative consequences for the whole country.

Biden is embarrassing, but Biden isn't the problem. If they could only replace that 8% unemployment figure as easily.

No one is arguing that Biden is holding Obama back, and that if we only got rid of Biden, then Obama could rise to his messiah-like level again.

• When Ryan comes on the ticket, it's different, because Ryan assures conservatives that Romney knows what conservatives want and respects them.
• What do (Biden or Hillary) add to Obama? He's already more liberal than they are - he was rated the most liberal senator -and no one would say that Biden and Hillary balance that liberalism with something else.

In the end, though, Obama doesn't admit mistakes.

(I must resist the pleasure of seeing the Clinton wing and the Obama wing of the Democrat party trounced in one sweep.)

I doubt Biden will be dumped, but he will be leashed and muted.  Today's political culture does not allow for public admissions of error.  The only hedging I will do is if Obama's internals are trending as bad as I think they are post-Ryan, then it might be considered another useful diversion for the public and press to talk about VP replacements rather than the awful economy.

From the Clintons' perspective, she'll only do it if she really thinks Obama will win in November.  If he loses now 2016 is open to her as the loyal team player only if she stays where she is.

The scenario: Biden, an unquestionable liability gets dumped, Clinton is put on the ticket and Obama's campaign is suddenly energized. Undecided women voters suddenly have something to get behind. Obama wins.

I can't really see how this could hurt him. Anyone that would question voting for him based on his decisions isn't going to be swayed, at this point, by what his thoughts were dropping Biden.

Even if given the opportunity, I don't see Hillary hitching her wagon to a second Obama term that is likely to be a continuation of a death spiral for our economy.  I don't question her ambition, however.  Look for her to emerge in 2016 as the standard bearer for the Dems---when she (& Bill) have full control of calling the shots, especially on the economy. 

I suppose it's too late for Justice Ginsberg to step down and make room for Biden. Maybe Obama will make a recess appointment of Biden to SCOTUS - that would make for an interesting Constitutional crisis.

Before you say "He can't possibly..." or "He wouldn't dare," think about other recess appointments, executive privilege on Fast and Furious, deeming ACA to have passed, the immigrant young people standing in line as we speak, and more that escape me just now.

Or maybe just a promise of SCOTUS during the second term would be enough to get Biden to go on his own.

A friend of mine speculated that the only way Hillary would take the VP slot is if 1) she felt certain that doing so would result in an Obama win and 2) she had something "in hand" that would make Obama resign.

I don't think either are true, so I don't think she'd take it even if it were offered on a silver platter.

I have a related question - Has there ever been a VP candidate who wound up on the losing side who then later went on to become president?  I don't think there has been, which is another reason Hillary wouldn't take the chance.

Flapjack, absolutely right about number 1. However, I think she'd wait to run on her own in four years. I'm not sure she wants to trisk the risk, so it would have to be someone else, but who? 

Biden will be on the ticket in November (unless Obama isn't). Replacing Biden would be admitting an error and that is not in Obama or his advisers/master's DNA.

The only reason I can think that Obama would dump him this late in the game is in order to get the press talking about someone other than Paul Ryan. This means that Obama would have to find someone worth talking about, and as we've noted here over the last few weeks, the Democrats don't really have a great set of team members right now.

And of course, Biden wouldn't be dumped until the replacement could be found. (Unless, as above, they want to have the press speculating who his pick might be for a few weeks, and sucking all the air out of the room in the process.)

So . . . if it's going to be Hillary, then the deals have already been cut. And if it's not going to be Hillary, don't look for it to happen soon.

It would be a cynical ploy, and would reveal the depth of desperation in the Obama campaign. I tend to think they'll just keep him hidden for as long as possible. Obama himself is already hiding from the press. (Except for People Magazine and Entertainment Tonight, apparently.)

I'm sure Obama is looking closely to how well he is polling amongst women.  Obama and the Clintons loathe one another, but staying in power always trumps personal animosity.  It just seems for Obama it's a no brainer to dump the gaffe machine and put Hillary on the ticket.

Would Biden stop talking if he were no longer on the ticket?

He'd still be the current Vice President.  He might not be on the stump, but he wouldn't be out of the public eye, and he'd have hurt feelings and thwarted personal ambitions.  Might not that situation create as much possible embarrassment as it avoids?

I'd just like to point out that the Democrats are suffering from an enthusiasm gap this year. Having Hillary on the ticket would solve a part of that problem for them.

Very good point.  Considering the little things on which debates can turn -- and that much of it won't be on Ryan's strongest territory -- the Republicans need to stop talking as though this one is a done deal.  If the expectations keep up at this rate, everyone will think Biden has won if he manages to speak in complete sentences and if Ryan stumbles once.

I expect Obama to issue an executive order doing just that sometime next week.

I think we forget the most likely reason not to dump Biden. Then man has nothing to loose if you do. I mean if they dump him what prevents him from leaking to the press all sorts of nasty things about the Obama administration. Do we really think Biden is such a nice guy so as not to do that? If it were me I would take everyone down with me if I got the boot, but maybe Biden is a dedicated Obamanaut and loyal Democratic foot soldier. 

Bingo!

Besides, if the Obamacrats want the focus taken off Ryan, talking about Biden's gaffes at least accomplishes that much. Just look at this whole thread about it! While we're talking about this, we're not talking about the economy.

Granted, there are better ways to change the conversation, but the Obamacrats have never been known for the quality of their ideas.